Los Votantes Latinos Al Rescate!
Over at PPP, Tom Jensen’s latest polling finds that Rick Perry is pretty popular among Republicans…and is immediately driving the Latino vote straight to President Barack Obama.
In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43. That six point advantage is pretty comparable to Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain. Perry has certainly come on strong with Republicans but independents view him negatively already by an almost 2:1 margin, 29/55, and Democrats pretty universally give him bad ratings at a 10/71 spread. As a result Obama leads Perry thanks in large part to a 24 point advantage with independents at 56-32.
Jensen does pitch a cautionary note however: Even PPP finds that Barack Obama ties Mitt Romney at 45%. But Perry also edges out Romney and Bachmann in Iowa in PPP’s latest numbers there, 22% to 19% to 18% respectively.
Here’s the interesting part:
One big reason Obama’s doing pretty well in these match ups is the Hispanic vote. Exit polls in 2008 showed him winning it by a 36 point margin over McCain but he builds on that in all of these match ups with a 37 point advantage over Romney at 66-29, a 46 point one over Perry at 72-26, a 48 point edge over Bachmann at 74-26, a 49 point lead on Palin at 74-25, and a 53 point spread on Herman Cain at 75-22. This is a good example of what Republican strategist Mike Murphy has described as the economics vs. demographics tension for next year’s election. The economy could sink Obama but at the same time an ever growing expanding Hispanic vote that he wins by a huge margin could be enough to let him eek out a second term. It’s certainly propping him up on this poll.
Perhaps President Obama’s recent decision to overhaul his administration’s misguided and overzealous enforcement of the nation’s deportation policy last week, halting some 300,000 deportations for further review, is already having an effect. Republicans have continued to attack the President as weak on immigration policy despite already deporting more than 800,000 individuals in just two years, far outpacing any previous administration.
Republicans were going to attack President Obama on immigration anyway and will continue to demonize Latinos across the country (you have to look no further than Alabama’s “toughest in the nation” immigration law, passed by Republican lawmakers and heading for federal court this week). It seems the President has wisely decided that since as I said Republicans are going to ignore his deportation enforcement that outpaced Dubya and will accuse him of “amnesty” for treating Latinos as human beings anyway, he might as well get credit for doing the right thing with his base.
It’s a smart move all around. Well played, Mr. President.
I have to wonder if the Catholic vote may be playing a part in this as well. I understand that Rick Perry’s holly-roller rollout of his campaign a couple of weeks back did not include any Catholics. In the past, evangelical candidates have at least made an effort to look like they are inclusive of all Christians, even “those” kind. Perry seems to be almost flaunting his “I’m not Catholic” credentials.
Hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic.
This is kind of a complex issue and I am speaking from my own limited experience and family etc. My mother was a very Catholic Latina, my father a self proclaimed Marxist agnostic so I had a very atypical upbringing. I, myself, took “the low road” and became UU, lol. Many in my own rather large family are ‘CINO’ Catholic in name only. They will attend church for special occasions or festivals but that is about the extent of their Catholicism. Even some of those have completely left even that much due to the scandals over Pedophile priests and the church’s response here in AZ.
I’m not discounting what you have proposed, I’m just thinking this is probably not the largest factor in why Latinos don’t like Perry or any other Republican for that matter. For most of us, it is first that we usually vote for the Democrat (or sadly don’t vote at all) but the systematic war that has been waged against us by Republicans such as in AZ has “awakened a sleeping giant” to steal a phrase from Yamamoto.
Polls are just polls, the real meat in the taco will be if Latinos turn out in mass to vote like they did in Nevada 2010 to vote for Reid. Can I predict, no, but I will be all out GOTV for 2012.
I would never suggest that one and only one factor is involved in the lack of support for Perry (and the GOP in general) by Latinos. That would be foolish.
I just find it fascinating that Perry seems to be almost flaunting an anti-Catholic attitude and wonder how much that will impact his chances in the future.
Si se puede!
I’m not surprised by this. I have never understood why Hispanics or gay people would vote Republican (or even poor people), but the Gallup poll the other day that showed a majority of Democrats unenthusiastic about voting had me confused. I know virtually nothing about polling, but I wonder if the lack of enthusiasm is a) we don’t know who our opponent is, b) the election is a fricking year away and we know our candidate, and c) it is too soon to begin the frantic worrying. Is it me because just a few weeks ago it showed Obama’s support among his base was solid. Have I misread the polls? I am so confused.
If the media can’t frame a political story into a football game or a horse race then they try to create dramatic storylines to fill time until we get into full blown election cycle or keep the election coverage exiting enough that people will tune in. And if you’re a Latino and you’re thinking about voting for Mittens all I gotta ask is why? A bulk of the cash Mittens made was owning a company that brought up other companies vaporize their work force and strip the company down while selling it off in parts.
That is some fantastic news, thank you. Si se puede!
In 2008, I made a bunch (over a 1000)of telephone calls to Puerto Rico voters to help out through the OFA-“Latino to Latino” phone banking. (Great people out in PR, they thought that I was from there and would want me over to their home for coffee) Anyways, this time around, I’ll have to call Latinos from TX, regardless who the winner on the other side is and of course to the state of whomever wins from the other side. I am sure that an email from OFA will be coming in telling me who to call too which is OK because, I’ll make time to get it done.
I love making phone calls for the campaign BUT please don’t call me with personal problems?! I am too old to hear about your headaches and stuff like that!!!
LOL on the phone banking. I prefer the local canvassing myself and I think I gained about 20 lbs during my work here for 2010 election. People want to talk and they want to provide food and drink and yes they do want to share their aches and pains. I listen and if that helps to get them to the polls I am all for it!
Why is it that whenever it’s pointed out that Hispanics overwhelming support Obama, that some liberals, not just Republican/Conservative always say something like, “well if Rubio is on the ticket, that support will evaporate”. I can undestand an argument about Hispanics not voting in larger numbers for Dems because of some notion that not enough has been done in terms of immigration reform by any party, but the idea that Hispanics on bloc will vote GOP because a Hispanic in on the ticket really don’t care or don’t really understand that it’s a little bit more uncertain than that.
I have a friend who is Mexican American, and another friend who is Puerto Rican, and I asked them both would it matter to them if having an “Hispanic nominee say a Cuban on a ticket” would it make them more likely to vote for that ticket. They both said no.
It think that so many people like to group “Hispanics” together as one “nationality” like what is done with African Americans, but what doesn’t seem to be taken into account, is that a large number of African Americans, such as myself, can trace their family history in America back to slavery. For many AA, beyond genealogy studies (which can be damn expensive), the vast majority of us ONLY know of America as our “nationality” (this of course excludes people born of African immigrants, who by nature of being born to an immigrants can trace their history beyond America’s shores). IMHO, this is why AA voters while not a monolith, tend to voter in similar patterns to one another because we have “shared experiences” with other AA. Hispanics are not as easy to group together as some might think.
The Hispanic population in America is comprised of many different countries/nationalities. Do not make the mistake of calling someone who is Dominican a Mexican, or calling someone from Puerto Rico a Cuban, for every South American country there is, there is just as likely an Hispanic demographic that is represented, so Hispanic to me is just a catch all used by people who either don’t care or wants to ignore the real nuances that are within the Hispanic community.
All that is to say, that just because there is a “Cuban” on the GOP ticket, doesn’t mean that a Dominican or a Puerto Rican or Costa Rican voter will vote for them.
Besides, Rubio refuses to even discuss immigration. As VP, he will be almost assured to receive a question about immigration in any debate. The Dem of cours will be on the “right” side of the debate in the eyes of many Hispanics.
Rubio is not gonna be able to divert from the GOP line on immigration. And if GOP voters who are still majority white think the Rubio already being non-white himself is also “soft” on immigration, I don’t see them being enthusiastic voting for Rubio, so all the GOP will have to rely on in FLA are those Hispanics who may vote for Rubio, but wouldn’t that also take for granted that non-Cuban born Hispanics in FLA would vote for Rubio regardless of his immigration paralleling the GOP talking points?
If immigration is their “issue”, then why would they vote for someone for some type of ethnic solidarity, particularly since they may not even be Cuban-born and probably don’t even consider themselves ethnically similar.
Hey, McCain dumped the Alaskan Cancer on his ticket in the hopes that Hillary supporters would vote their vaginas.
These people are morans.
Not just morans but it also shows how badly they view feminists and Democratic women. Apparently we’re so moronic we wouldn’t recognize an obvious political ploy when we see one. All we care about is destroying men with our Venus FlyTrap Vaginas! :rolleyes:
Anyway back on topic I have to completely cosign with everything lamh34 said. Especially the part on how diverse the latino/a community is. I’m not a Latina but I’ve been around plenty to know and respect the sheer diversity of the community not just in political views but in race as well. When I found out that there’s more black people in South America than in North America, well, this dorky black North American(by way of Jamaica) was floored.
Or that there are white Latinos as well, something that the GOP will never say publically because it ruins the whole “THOSE BROWNZ FOLK WILL INVADE THIS COUNTRY WITH THEIR FILTHY DIRTY BROWNINESS!” meme they got going.
This reminds me so much of the 2008 primary. In the early going, before Iowa, quite a few African Americans were supporting Hillary over Obama. There were lots of reasons for this, but to the extent that Obama’s skin color effected his support in the black community that effect was probably negative: a lot of African Americans wouldn’t support a black candidate because they just didn’t think white people would vote for a black man.
That changed when Obama won Iowa.
This is good news for Obama. George Bush, in both 2000 and 2004 got over 35% of the Hispanic vote. (Compare that to McCain’s 31%)That none of the Republican candidates can get over 30% of the vote is not good for their chances, especially in states like AZ, NM, CO, NV and FL.
Apparently the internals of some of the Latino polls are not terribly optimistic. There may be some work to be done in the Latino community. I think that a lot of that is immigration and that they think he should be able to get good immigration reform done, in spite of the GOP opposition in congress. Check it out:
http://latinodecisions.wordpress.com/
Here is a quick preview:
Currently, only 38% of Latino voters are certain they will vote for the president next year. This number was 43% in February, when impreMedia/Latino Decisions did a similar poll, and it had increased to 49% in June after the capture of Osama bin Laden and Obama’s speech in El Paso reaffirming his support on immigration. As reflected below, the poll also found that only half of Latino voters are “very enthusiastic” about voting in the presidential election next year, while 26% are “somewhat enthusiastic.”
The enthusiasm is going to be key!